Forecast Existing Capacity

Forward view of installed capacity for operating NEM generators by technology, stepping down at each unit's expected closure year, with indicative peak demand overlaid. Toggle capacity factors or edit assumptions to explore scenarios.

Operating units
474
Effective capacity
54,470 MW
Peak demand
38,200 MW
Step Change · 3 ISP scenarios
Forecast horizon
2026–2050

Peak demand scenarios

2024 ISP outlook — indicative NEM peak demand, interpolated between anchor years. Headroom uses Step Change (AEMO’s most likely scenario).

Capacity vs peak demand

Peak demand source: AEMO 2024 ISP scenarios (indicative NEM peak demand) — Step Change, Progressive Change, and Green Energy Exports

Stacked areas show existing capacity by technology (adjustments apply when toggled on). Coloured lines show AEMO ISP peak demand scenarios (Step Change, Progressive Change, Green Energy Exports). Headroom in 2026: 16,270 MW above peak demand.

Coal Gas peakers Gas baseload BESS Wind Solar Hydro Others

Coal

25 power stations (58 dispatch units combined by site)

Gas peakers

30 power stations (61 dispatch units combined by site)

Gas baseload

8 power stations (12 dispatch units combined by site)

Wind

94 power stations (101 dispatch units combined by site) — largest sites shown individually; smaller sites grouped as Other

Hydro

57 power stations (66 dispatch units combined by site) — largest sites shown individually; smaller sites grouped as Other

Others

20 power stations (24 dispatch units combined by site)

In-service plant with a registered DUID, including recently commissioned units and those with an announced closure date while still operating. Wind and solar chart values are nameplate × capacity factor when that toggle is on. Coloured lines show indicative NEM peak demand for all three AEMO 2024 ISP scenarios (Step Change, Progressive Change, Green Energy Exports). Headroom uses Step Change. Capacity steps down at each unit's expected closure year (or 2050 when no closure is published).