Forecast Existing Capacity

Forward view of installed capacity for operating NEM generators by technology, stepping down at each unit's expected closure year, with indicative peak demand overlaid. Toggle capacity factors or edit assumptions to explore scenarios.

Operating units
480
Effective capacity
55,223 MW
Peak demand
38,000 MW
Step Change · 3 ISP scenarios
Forecast horizon
2026–2050

Peak demand scenarios

2026 ISP outlook — indicative NEM peak demand, interpolated between anchor years. Headroom uses Step Change (AEMO’s most likely scenario).

Capacity vs peak demand

Peak demand source: AEMO 2026 ISP scenarios (indicative NEM peak demand) — Step Change, Slower Growth, and Accelerated Transition

Stacked areas show existing capacity by technology (adjustments apply when toggled on). Coloured lines show AEMO ISP peak demand scenarios (Step Change, Slower Growth, Accelerated Transition). Headroom in 2026: 17,223 MW above peak demand.

Coal Gas peakers Gas baseload BESS Wind Solar Hydro Others

Coal

25 power stations (58 dispatch units combined by site)

Gas peakers

30 power stations (61 dispatch units combined by site)

Gas baseload

8 power stations (12 dispatch units combined by site)

Wind

94 power stations (101 dispatch units combined by site) — largest sites shown individually; smaller sites grouped as Other

Hydro

57 power stations (66 dispatch units combined by site) — largest sites shown individually; smaller sites grouped as Other

Others

20 power stations (24 dispatch units combined by site)

In-service plant with a registered DUID, including recently commissioned units and those with an announced closure date while still operating. Wind and solar chart values are nameplate × capacity factor when that toggle is on. Coloured lines show indicative NEM peak demand for all three AEMO 2026 ISP scenarios (Step Change, Slower Growth, Accelerated Transition). Headroom uses Step Change. Capacity steps down at each unit's expected closure year (or 2050 when no closure is published).