Signals for where firming, storage and dispatchable capacity may be needed as coal retires and wind/solar capacity grows.
Firm dispatchable capacity includes coal, gas (peakers and baseload), hydro, liquid fuels and duration-adjusted BESS at 10h. Wind and solar are excluded from firm capacity and shown separately as indicative firming need.
Peak shortfall (red band) is demand exceeding firm dispatchable capacity — gas peakers and other dispatchable plant are already counted in the firm line. VRE firming requirement is wind and solar nameplate treated as needing separate backing at 0 ELCC, even when peak shortfall is zero.
Short-duration gaps favour BESS. Gaps beyond 10 hours increasingly favour gas, hydro, long-duration storage or demand response.
0–2h: short-duration BESS · 2–10h: medium-duration BESS · 10–24h: long-duration storage / gas · 24h+: gas / hydro / future fuels
System requirement at peak need (2050, 34,179 MW firm gap) compared with the full pre-operating pipeline today.
Proposed capacity is risk-weighted by project status.
Required bars use the peak firming need year (largest gap or coal replacement). Proposed bars show the full pre-operating pipeline today — compare whether batteries, gas and hydro match the duration mix the system needs.
Dark bars = required firming at peak need · Light bars = proposed pipeline (BESS firm-adjusted at 10h). Long-duration proposed includes gas, hydro and >10h BESS.
If coal retirements exceed firming build, scarcity pricing risk increases.
If VRE grows faster than storage, curtailment and price cannibalisation risk increase.
Interval data not yet connected
This section will compare rolling 72-hour renewable output shortfalls against available BESS energy once interval generation data is wired in.
Renewable drought exposure compares rolling low-renewable output against available BESS energy (placeholder until interval data is wired).