Combined existing and new NEM generation capacity by technology, with risk-weighted pipeline, wind/solar capacity factors, and an indicative peak demand overlay.
See also Investment signals for firm capacity gap, storage adequacy, and coal retirement indicators.
Peak demand source: AEMO 2026 ISP scenarios (indicative NEM peak demand) — Step Change, Slower Growth, and Accelerated Transition
Existing operating plant (bottom) and pre-operating pipeline (top), with indicative peak demand overlaid.
Peak demand source: AEMO 2026 ISP scenarios (indicative NEM peak demand) — Step Change, Slower Growth, and Accelerated Transition
Stacked areas show effective capacity (risk-weighted new pipeline; wind/solar capacity factors applied). Coloured lines show AEMO ISP peak demand scenarios. Headroom in 2026: 20,623 MW above peak demand.
Capacity combines operating plant (stepping down at closure) and pre-operating projects (stepping up at expected FCUD). New pipeline capacity is risk-weighted by status; wind and solar use editable capacity factors for indicative average output. Peak demand lines use AEMO 2026 ISP scenarios (indicative NEM peak demand) — Step Change, Slower Growth, and Accelerated Transition — interpolated between published anchor years. Compare with caution: effective renewable output is not directly comparable to peak demand without storage and diversity assumptions.