Capacity vs Demand

Combined existing and new NEM generation capacity by technology, with risk-weighted pipeline, wind/solar capacity factors, and an indicative peak demand overlay.

See also Investment signals for firm capacity gap, storage adequacy, and coal retirement indicators.

Existing capacity
54,470 MW
New pipeline
3,331 MW
Total in 2026
57,801 MW
Peak demand
38,200 MW
Step Change · 3 ISP scenarios

Peak demand scenarios

2024 ISP outlook — indicative NEM peak demand, interpolated between anchor years. Headroom uses Step Change (AEMO’s most likely scenario).

Existing vs new capacity

2026–2050

Peak demand source: AEMO 2024 ISP scenarios (indicative NEM peak demand) — Step Change, Progressive Change, and Green Energy Exports

Existing operating plant (bottom) and pre-operating pipeline (top), with indicative peak demand overlaid.

Capacity by technology

2026–2050

Peak demand source: AEMO 2024 ISP scenarios (indicative NEM peak demand) — Step Change, Progressive Change, and Green Energy Exports

Stacked areas show effective capacity (risk-weighted new pipeline; wind/solar capacity factors applied). Coloured lines show AEMO ISP peak demand scenarios. Headroom in 2026: 19,601 MW above peak demand.

Capacity combines operating plant (stepping down at closure) and pre-operating projects (stepping up at expected FCUD). New pipeline capacity is risk-weighted by status; wind and solar use editable capacity factors for indicative average output. Peak demand lines use AEMO 2024 ISP scenarios (indicative NEM peak demand) — Step Change, Progressive Change, and Green Energy Exports — interpolated between published anchor years. Compare with caution: effective renewable output is not directly comparable to peak demand without storage and diversity assumptions.